Asia week ahead: Central banks in a wait-and-watch mode

Another big central bank week in Asia is likely to pass without much action. The record monetary easing unleashed earlier in the year means most central banks remain in a wait-and-see mode for the recovery to gain traction. Central banks wait and watch … Central banks in China, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines meet next week,

EUR and ECB Crib Sheet

With expectations running high, it will be very difficult for the ECB to reverse the EUR/USD uptrend. The weak dollar dynamics are too powerful and despite more ECB easing expected this week, EUR/USD should head higher next year. We target EUR/USD 1.25 in 2021, with a strong upside risk to 1.30. Expectations are running high

Germany: Export recovery continues in October

German exports (seasonally and calendar adjusted) increased by 0.8% month-on-month in October, from 2.3% in September. Imports increased by 0.3% MoM, from -0.1% MoM in September. As a result, the seasonally-adjusted trade surplus narrowed to €19.4 billion in October. On the year, exports were still down by almost 7%. More relief in the offing but longer-term outlook remains

China: Credit jumps, hidden risk increases

Though shadow banking continued to shrink in November, which is good for the economy in the long term, we are starting to worry about the risks surrounding the large issuance of government bonds this year, which will become more obvious when this round of deleveraging reform, which only focuses on corporate credit (state-owned or not), is completed. More credit

Today’s Currency Currents | 24th Nov’20

Rates: How is UST positioning now?                               The US Treasuries curve has been flattening with 10Y yields pulling back from 1% over the past week as market participants focus on the near-term reality that COVID-19 outbreaks are worsening in many economies. This has thrown some doubts unto whether this bout of steepening can be sustained. We think it
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