US Dollar Analysis: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook2 min read
- EUR/USD branching out a new uptrend but will be coming across critical cross-section
- AUD/USD rejected at 21-month swing-high. Drop accelerated after local GDP released
- NZD/USD cleared 13-month resistance but price action is indicating slowing momentum
EUR/USD appears to be climbing along a newly-sprouted, modest uptrend since late July after jumping above the older slope of appreciation dating back to mid-May. The intersection of the two – labelled as “Key Juncture 2” may be critical. Breaking below that could result in a short-term pullback, followed by a brief congestive period before the broader uptrend resumes.
AUD/USD was firmly rejected at the December 2018 swing-high at 0.7393, and was met with aggressive follow-through. Worse-than-expected Australia GDP data compounded AUD losses. Looking ahead, the pair will likely retest short-lived, former resistance-turned-support at 0.7295. Cracking that floor could open the door to flirting with a stubborn inflection range between 0.7206 and 0.7181.
After breaking below the early-June uptrend, NZD/USD underwent a brief selling bout before stabilizing in mid-August and resuming its broader uptrend. The pair just recently cleared a technical landmark at 0.6726 with follow-through, which could precede another rise if momentum is sustained. Having said that, recent price action does paint a worrisome picture.
Leading up to resistance, the candles had large bodies and small wicks, indicating what appeared to be a robust underlying confidence in the pair’s upside trajectory. However, since the ceiling has been cleared, price action has become more timid as the pair trades at a 13-month high. Wobbly movement could make traders nervous and potentially catalyze a short-term pullback.